You are right to identify the presence of historically valid Russian paranoia at another invasion. In some senses they are right. We must also consider the end point. If every European country bordering Russia was part of NATO then the world would be a better place with Russia contained.

If Russia were broken up that would be even better both for the world and the Russian people as that may allow parts of Russia to modernise and move into the 21st century.

In that sense they are right. Fortunately though and what a lot of people forget is that they are now a second rate power with an overhang of an over large ego and nuke pile. They continue to decline annually in population and economy.

Russia cannot get what it wants. In the long run if they truly understand the weakness of their position they would aim for keeping Russia intact (best case scenario) as they slowly become a tributary and raw material source of China. That is the best they will get.