Dave Watkins
Dec 30, 2024

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There are two things not accounted for in your excellent essay which I hope are of some comfort:
1. AI works best when it is trained as openly as possible. I can’t imagine Chinese AI ever working particularly well as the information it trains on us likely to be heavily restricted due to zealous Chinese censorship.
2. China is in the process of undergoing a demographic and therefore economic crisis. As soon as Xi dies there will be a succession crisis as well and as he has eliminated all of his clever rivals it’s likely that China will stumble very heavily before it gets anywhere near parity with US military tech.

This might not stop an invasion by Taiwan but it’s a big task and the Chinese military are out of practice and that counts for a lot. They might try something smaller and easier first.

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