1 min readJun 14, 2020
Interesting. Care must be taken not to fall into a probability trap. If two people make an argument that does not mean they are equally likely to be correct nor does it mean that one person is 100% correct.
For example man made climate change is something like 99% likely to be correct. We should therefore treat it and any for or against arguments appropriately.
We should not treat everything as equally likely but we should have the humility to realise that if we hold say ten positions that are 90% likely to be correct then the odds are we are wrong about one of them.